The Dubas Draft Doctrine: Predicting Pittsburgh's Picks in 2026
If you’ve been following the NHL draft in recent years, Kyle Dubas’s name has likely popped up more than once. As the Penguins’ GM, Dubas has carved out a distinct drafting philosophy that’s both intriguing and, at times, puzzling. Personally, I think what makes Dubas so fascinating is his willingness to stick to his guns while also showing flexibility when it matters. But as we look ahead to the 2026 draft, it’s worth asking: What can his past decisions tell us about the future?
Forwards First: A Dubas Staple
One thing that immediately stands out is Dubas’s love for drafting forwards early. Out of his 10 first and second-round picks, seven have been forwards, often wingers. Last year’s draft was a perfect example, with Ben Kindel, Bill Zonnon, and Will Horcoff all joining the Penguins’ ranks. What many people don’t realize is that this isn’t just about positional need—it’s about Dubas’s belief in building a dynamic offensive core. From my perspective, this strategy makes sense in today’s NHL, where speed and skill are king. But it also raises a deeper question: Is Dubas sacrificing defensive depth for short-term offensive gains?
The WHL Connection: A Dubas Favorite
Another trend that’s hard to ignore is Dubas’s affinity for the Western Hockey League (WHL). Four out of his six top-50 picks have come from the WHL, including Kindel and Peyton Kettles last year. What this really suggests is that Dubas values the competitive environment and player development the WHL offers. However, with more top talent now heading to the NCAA, I’m curious to see if Dubas will continue to lean so heavily on Western Canada. If you take a step back and think about it, this could be a pivotal moment for his drafting strategy.
Breaking the Mold: The QMJHL and Beyond
What makes Dubas’s 2025 draft particularly interesting is his decision to select Bill Zonnon from the QMJHL—a league he’s historically avoided. In my opinion, this shows that Dubas isn’t completely rigid in his approach. He’s willing to adapt when the right player comes along. But here’s the thing: While Zonnon was an atypical pick, Dubas still hasn’t drafted a single Swedish player in his tenure. This raises a broader question about regional biases in scouting and whether Dubas is missing out on untapped talent pools.
The Goalie Conundrum
One detail that I find especially interesting is Dubas’s reluctance to draft goalies early. In seven drafts, he’s only selected four goalies, and none in the first three rounds—until Gabriel D’Aigle last year. Personally, I think this is a calculated risk. Dubas seems to prioritize positional players early, assuming he can address goaltending needs through trades or free agency. But in a league where goaltending can make or break a team, is this a sustainable strategy?
Right-Shot Defensemen: A Hidden Priority
If there’s one area where Dubas has been consistent, it’s his preference for right-shot defensemen. Eleven of his 47 draft picks have been RHD, including Kettles, Charlie Tretheway, and Quinn Beauchesne last year. What makes this particularly fascinating is how it aligns with modern NHL trends. Right-shot defensemen are in high demand, and Dubas seems to be playing the long game here. But it also begs the question: Is he overvaluing handedness at the expense of other skills?
Trading Down: The Dubas Way
Dubas’s tendency to trade down in the draft is almost legendary. Whether it’s to accumulate more picks or shed bad contracts, he’s done it repeatedly—in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025. From my perspective, this is both a strength and a weakness. On one hand, it shows his ability to maximize value. On the other, it suggests he’s not always in a position to draft elite talent. This year, with only one pick in Rounds 4-7, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make a similar move.
The European Question
One of the most surprising shifts in Dubas’s drafting is his recent avoidance of European players. After a heavy focus on Russia and Finland earlier in his career, the Penguins haven’t drafted a European-trained player since 2023. What this really suggests is a shift in Dubas’s priorities—or perhaps a reflection of the changing talent pipeline. Personally, I think this is a missed opportunity. European leagues are brimming with talent, and ignoring them could limit the Penguins’ potential.
Looking Ahead to 2026
So, what does all this mean for the 2026 draft? If history is any guide, expect Dubas to prioritize forwards, lean on the WHL, and draft at least one right-shot defenseman. He’ll likely trade down to accumulate more picks, and don’t be shocked if he avoids drafting a goalie early. But here’s the wildcard: With the talent pipeline shifting toward the NCAA, will Dubas finally start looking beyond his traditional sources?
In my opinion, Dubas’s drafting philosophy is a double-edged sword. It’s methodical, data-driven, and rooted in clear priorities. But it also risks becoming predictable—and in the NHL, predictability can be a liability. As we head into 2026, I’ll be watching closely to see if Dubas sticks to the script or writes a new chapter.
What do you think? Is Dubas’s approach a recipe for success, or is he playing it too safe? Let me know in the comments—I’d love to hear your take.
